Top 5 Questions: Tuesday's Mississippi Primaries

By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff Mon Mar 10, 12:14 AM

After Clinton's Ohio and Texas victories, each of Mississippi's 40 Democratic delegates became precious to both Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. Seven of them are unpledged superdelegates, free to support the candidate of their choosing. The other 33 will be allocated proportionally to the candidates based on their primary results, so both Obama and Clinton will pick up a portion of Mississippi delegates.

In addition, there are Congressional primaries.

2. Who is favored to win Tuesday?

Political analysts believe that Obama will win the state, and recent polls support that theory.

Obama has drawn strong support from African-American voters and, according to American Research Group, 55 percent of Mississippi's likely Democratic voters are black. In Ohio's March 4 primary, 18 percent of Democratic voters identified themselves as African American, and 87 percent of them supported Obama over Clinton, according to exit polls.

Clinton has been campaigning in the state, but she has also dispatched her husband, former President Bill Clinton, to make the Mississippi campaign rounds. The former president had strong ties to the black community and was commonly referred to as the nation's "first black president." But he angered some black voters earlier this year when he likened Obama's South Carolina primary victory to Jesse Jackson's primary successes in the state. Some believed Clinton was attempting to dismiss Obama's win due solely to his race.

3. Since John McCain has clinched the Republican nomination, what might happen on the GOP side?

Republicans expect lower voter turnout Tuesday, due to an uncontested top-of-ticket race. But since voters do not register by party in Mississippi, it is possible that some Republicans may show up just to cast ballots in the more intriguing Democratic primary. And some will still be heading to the polls to cast ballots in the presidential race and to participate in the state's regularly scheduled congressional and Senate primary elections.

4. Who is running in Mississippi's congressional delegation?

All House members and Republican Sen. Thad Cochran will be on the ballot Tuesday. Both Cochran and Democratic Rep. Gene Taylor of the 4th District face no primary opponent. Democrat Bennie Thompson in the 2nd District is expected to defeat Dorothy "Dot" Benford, his only challenger.

Two House seats, the 1st and 3rd Districts, are open: Republican Rep. Roger Wicker left his 1st District seat when he was appointed to the Senate to succeed Trent Lott; Republican Rep. Charles W. "Chip" Pickering Jr., is retiring from his 3rd District seat. In both races, immigration and the economy are the biggest issues, with all the Republican candidates touting their conservative credentials.

In the 1st, Republican Glen L. McCullough Jr., a former mayor of Tupelo and former Tennessee Valley Authority chair, faces strong GOP competition from Southaven mayor Greg Davis. Randy Russell, an ophthalmologist who has less name recognition than his primary opponents, is also competing for conservative support.

In the 3rd, a passel of Republicans have lined up for the seat. At the top of the Republican ticket are: wealthy financial services businessman David Landrum; former state Sen. Charlie Ross; John Rounsaville, former state rural development director for the USDA and former aides to Republican Gov. Haley Barbour and Pickering; and former Rankin County GOP Chairman Gregg Harper.

These are the most competitive primary races in the state this year, as the winners will almost certainly win House seats in November. CQ Politics rates both races as Safe Republican.

In the event that a congressional race is forced into a runoff, primary voters will not be permitted to crossover and participate in a runoff for the opposite party.

5. When might results be first reported?

Polls close at 7 pm local time, 8 pm Eastern Time. Results are expected to be reported shortly after the polls close.

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